Potential Profitable Betting Systems - German Bundesliga 2.

Potential Profitable Betting Systems - German Bundesliga 2.

I have taken advantage of the Covid lock down period to have a look at historical Football results data for a number of leagues and I have noticed some potential profitable betting systems. Note this is not a get rich quick scheme, it will be a slow grind to make a profit and some systems will be in negative territory before they show a profit.

As the German leagues have returned first I have started to put two of these systems into practice using 1 unit stakes.

For each system I have a bank of 100 units.  I am using £5 as 1 Unit and my starting bank for each system is £500. I will continue to bet 1 unit stakes of £5 until either my bank is gone or the systems has proved sufficiently profitable to increase my bank by 50% plus.

I recognise I am not going to get rich use £5 stakes however at the time of writing football is being played behind closed doors, these are strange times so I recommend exercising caution.

I have two systems on the German Bundesliga 2. However before I go into bets placed.  I want to briefly highlight how I found these systems. There will be further blog posts which provide more detail and analysis.

Looking at the last 4 years of data for the league. Backing every game and every possible result in the Match result Market (Home win, Draw, Away win) and consequently laying each result (Home win, Draw , Away Win) with a betting exchange and assuming 2% commission has returned the following unit returns.

Has returned the following unit returns

League	Back Home Win	Back Draw	Back Away Win	Lay Home Win	Lay Draw	Lay Away Win
Bundesliga 2	4.27	91.36	-56.71	-17.83	-107.86	39.73

** Data prior to the fixtures 06/06/2020

There are two outcomes which stand out as profitable.
1) Backing the draw in every game played in the last 4 years has returned 91.36 units
2) Laying away in every game played in the last 4 years has returned 39.73 units.

Unsurprisingly my system bets for this league focus on Backing the draw or Laying away.

Note when you Lay a bet on a Betting Exchange you are taking the position a normal Bookmaker would take. The most you can make is your stake minus commission, but you are liable if the bet wins.  I'm sure I will explain this better in a later blog post.

Current Position

League	Current Bank	Current Units	No. bets	No. Wins	No. Losers	Start Date	System
Bundesliga 2	512.00	102.40	13	9	4	16/05/2020	Lay Away
Bundesliga 2	502.75	100.55	4	1	2	31/05/2020	Back Draw

Note at the time of writing there is still one Draw Back game to be played.

Bundesliga 2 Lay Away System

I am not placing a bet on every fixture, I am filtering on certain price points which should hopefully prove more consistently profitable.

I started placing bets on the 16th May 2020 with 1 unit stakes.

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	Return
16/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Bochum	Heidenheim	2.72	5
16/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Erzgebirge Aue	Sandhausen	2.96	5
16/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Karlsruhe	Darmstadt	2.8	5
16/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Regensburg	Holstein Kiel	2.64	5
23/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Osnabruck	Hannover	2.6	-8
26/05/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Regensburg	Nurnberg	2.52	5
26/05/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Wehen	Sandhausen	2.6	-8
27/05/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Bochum	Holstein Kiel	2.56	5
30/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Holstein Kiel	Bielefeld	2.46	-7.3
30/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Karlsruhe	St Pauli	2.92	5
30/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Sandhausen	Hannover	2.72	5
05/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Greuther Furth	Sandhausen	2.92	-9.7
06/06/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Regensburg	Darmstadt	2.72	5

Note I am currently paying 0% commission on bets placed with Smarkets

Bundesliga 2 Back Draw System

I am not placing a bet on every fixture, I am filtering on certain price points which should hopefully prove more consistently profitable.

I started placing bets on the 31st May 2020, if I had started at the same time as the Lay Away System I would be showing a higher level of profit.

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	Return
31/05/2020	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Heidenheim	Erzgebirge Aue	3.62	-5
03/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Hannover	Dresden	4.1	-5
06/06/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Bielefeld	Nurnberg	3.55	12.75

Note I am currently paying 0% commission on bets placed with Smarkets

Bets To Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Back Odds	Back Stake	Return
08/06/2020	19:30	Bundesliga 2	Hamburg	Holstein Kiel	4.5	5