Another Weekends Bundesliga 2 Fixtures

Bundesliga 2 Fixtures

This weekends fixtures are;

Date	Time	League	Home		Away
05/02/2021	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Erzgebirge Aue (8)	-	Hamburg (1)
05/02/2021	17:30	Bundesliga 2	St Pauli (15)	-	Sandhausen (16)
06/02/2021	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Braunschweig (17)	-	Hannover (7)
06/02/2021	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Darmstadt (12)	-	Nurnberg (14)
06/02/2021	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Osnabruck (13)	-	Bochum (2)
07/02/2021	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Paderborn (9)	-	Heidenheim (10)
07/02/2021	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Greuther Furth (4)	-	Wurzburger Kickers (18)
07/02/2021	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Karlsruhe (5)	-	Regensburg (11)
08/02/2021	19:30	Bundesliga 2	Fortuna Dusseldorf (6)	-	Holstein Kiel (3)

 

League Position in brackets.

Bets to Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	System	Result
2021-02-07	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Greuther Furth	Wurzburger Kickers	4.2	Back Draw	Lost -1U
2021-02-07	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Karlsruhe	Regensburg	3.6	Back Draw	Void

Stakes are 1 unit

 

Update Sunday 07/02 12:15

 

The Karlsruhe game is now void. 

Initial

At the time of writing there are only two games that meet my selection criteria, and they are both Back the Draws on Sunday which have not performed very well this year, we are currently in negative figures for the season.

I will endeavour to update this post if the odds move so the selected games no longer meet my criteria closer to kick off or any other games become eligible for my selection criteria before they kick off. I have listed the full set of fixtures above.

I will update the Table above with the results and the odds that I managed to get matched at.

 Betting Systems Current Position

Another Weekend of Bundesliga 2 Fixtures - Can we get our first win this year?

Bundesliga 2 Fixtures

This weekends fixtures are;

Date	Time	League	Home		Away
22/01/2021	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Fortuna Dusseldorf (3)	-	Greuther Furth (5)
22/01/2021	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Osnabruck (11)	-	Erzgebirge Aue (9)
23/01/2021	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Paderborn (10)	-	Wurzburger Kickers (18)
23/01/2021	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Karlsruhe (6)	-	Heidenheim (7)
23/01/2021	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Braunschweig (16)	-	Hamburg (2)
24/01/2021	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Darmstadt (14)	-	Holstein Kiel (4)
24/01/2021	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Nurnberg (12)	-	Hannover (8)
24/01/2021	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Sandhausen (15)	-	Bochum (1)
24/01/2021	12:30	Bundesliga 2	St Pauli (17)	-	Regensburg (13)

 

League Position in brackets.

Bets to Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	System	Result
2021-01-23	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Paderborn	Wurzburger Kickers	4.3	Back Draw	Loss -1U
2021-01-24	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Darmstadt	Holstein Kiel	2.82	Lay Away	Loss -1.8U
2021-01-24	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Nurnberg	Hannover	2.75	Lay Away	Void

Stakes are 1 unit

 

 

Result

 

Another losing weekend with a loss of 2.8 units.

Update Sunday 12:22

And Nurnberg is void!

Update Sunday 12:15

The Nurnberg game is borderline, I am monitoring the price and will update if it becomes void.

 Initial

At the time of writing there is only three games that meet my selection criteria, one Back the Draw and two Lay Aways.

I will endeavour to update this post if the odds move so the selected games no longer meet my criteria closer to kick off or any other games become eligible for my selection criteria before they kick off. I have listed the full set of fixtures above.

I will update the Table above with the results and the odds that I managed to get matched at.

 Betting Systems Current Position

A Good Weekend of Bundesliga 2 Results

 Results

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	Rtn	System
2020-10-17	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Karlsruhe	Sandhausen	3.1	4.90	Lay Away
2020-10-18	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Fortuna Dusseldorf	Regensburg	4.02	13.96	Back Draw
2020-10-18	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Erzgebirge Aue	Heidenheim	2.79	5	Lay Away
2020-10-18	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Paderborn	Hannover	2.36	0	Lay Away
2020-10-19	19:30	Bundesliga 2	St Pauli	Nurnberg	2.73	4.90	Lay Away

Stakes are 1 unit

An excellent weekend as all of the Bundesliga 2 fixtures which met my selection criterias by kick off all won. Karlsruhe beat Sandhausen 3-0, Dusseldorf came back form 2 nill down to draw 2-2, Aue beta Heidenheim 2-1and St, Pauli drew 2-2 with Nurnberg, coming from behind twice.

The only slight negative was over the weekend Smarkets had technical issues so I ended up placing the bets on Betfair, so I was charged 2% commission as opposed to 0% on Smarkets.

 
The Betting System Current Position has been updated to reflect this result. I have added a second table to reflect this seasons results.

Bundesliga 2 Fixtures After the International Break

Bets to Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	System
2020-10-17	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Karlsruhe	Sandhausen	3.1	Lay Away
2020-10-18	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Fortuna Dusseldorf	Regensburg	4.02	Back Draw
2020-10-18	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Erzgebirge Aue	Heidenheim	2.79	Lay Away
2020-10-18	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Paderborn	Hannover	2.36	Lay Away
2020-10-19	19:30	Bundesliga 2	St Pauli	Nurnberg	2.73	Lay Away

Stakes are 1 unit

 

Update 

Unfortunately the Paderborn game no longer meets my selection criteria as the prices have moved.

The St Pauli game on Monday has become eligible however it is borderline.

 

This is the first weekend where I have used my faster method to create the table above, still only Bundesliga 2.  There are only a small number of fixtures which meet my selection criteria and a number are borderline. So there is a strong likelyhood that some of them may drop out closer to kick off.  I will update when I can, lets hope there are no Covid postponements as well.

All 3 eligible Lay Away fixtures are borderline this weekend, the Back The Draw is middle of the range. I will update this post if the odds move so the selected games no longer meet the criteria.

When I publish the results table I will update with the odds that I managed to get matched at.

 Betting Systems Current Position

Bundesliga 2 Is Back

Bets to Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	System
19/09/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Hannover	Karlsruhe	4.05	Back Draw
21/09/2020	19:30	Bundesliga 2	Bochum	St Pauli	3.8	Back Draw

Stakes are 1 unit

The shortest ever season break is over. I still haven't written my review of last season, sorry about that!

There is one slight difference this season. During the break I have been playing a system in Brazil, I will write about it I promise, however I was reviewing my performance against the data and my results were underperforming. The fixtures I am posting fit the criteria at the time my data provider supplies the fixtures. However at kick off time which the result data uses the games may no longer fit the criteria as the odds have changed.

There are only two fixtures this weekend that have met the criteria of either of my Bundesliga 2 Betting systems and that is two back the draws. I think the first fixture should be ok by kick off however the second one due to it being on Monday may have changed, I will post an update closer to kick off if this happens.

When I publish the results table I will update with the odds that I managed to get matched at.

 Betting Systems Current Position

Bundesliga 2 Last week of the Season

Bets to Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	System
28/06/2020	14:30	Bundesliga 2	Stuttgart	Darmstadt	4.6	Back Draw
28/06/2020	14:30	Bundesliga 2	Dresden	Osnabruck	2.5	Lay Away

Stakes are 1 unit

There are only two fixtures this final weekend that have met the criteria of either of my Bundesliga 2 Betting systems and that is one of each. as it is he final weekend caution is advised if you are following along.

The one game based on the data that has been selected for the Lay Away system features the bottom of the table side Dresden, who are effectively relegated, there is still a mathematical chance of finishing third bottom. Osnabruck are safe and have nothing to play for.  Again caution is advised.

The one game based on the data that has been selected for the Back the Draw System is second place Stuttgart versus fifth place Darmstadt. Stuttgart have second place sown up even if they lose based on goal difference and Darmstadt hav little to play for.

When I publish the results table I will update with the odds that I managed to get matched at.

 Betting Systems Current Position

Only One Bundesliga 2 Fixture to Bet on this Weekend

Bets to Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	System
21/06/2020	14:30	Bundesliga 2	Sandhausen	Dresden	4.13	Back Draw

Stakes are 1 unit

There is only one fixture this weekend that has met the criteria of either of my Bundesliga 2 Betting systems and that is one Back The Draw. My data provider has started recording data at different times, publishing early etc. due to the number of fixtures and when they are being played, this may be affecting the chosen games, so caution is advised if you are following along. We have certainly gone from Famine to Feast.

The one game based on the data that has been selected features the bottom of the table side Dresde.  Again caution is advised.

When I publish the results table I will update with the odds that I managed to get matched at.

 Betting Systems Current Position

Midweek Bundesliga 2 bets

Bets to Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	System
17/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Hannover	St Pauli	3.72	Back Draw
17/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Stuttgart	Sandhause	4.4	Back Draw
17/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Erzgebirge Aue	Bochum	2.64	Lay Away
17/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Regensburg	Karlsruhe	2.73	Lay Away
18/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Holstein Kiel	Dresden	4.1	Back Draw
18/06/2020	19:30	Bundesliga 2	Bielefeld	Darmstadt	3.7	Back Draw

Stakes are 1 unit

There are a number of system bet qualifying fixtures from the Bundesliga 2 this week. There are four Back The Draws and Two Lay Aways spread over Wednesday and Thursday evenings. The odds listed above are listed as a guide, if you can back at a higher price or lay at a lower price then great. When I publish the results table I will update with the odds that I managed to get Matched at.

Lets hope there are a number of draws in the fixtures above as the Back the Draws are almost into negative territory after the weekend.  Betting System Current Position

This weekends Bundesliga 2 Betting System Results

Current Position

League	Current Bank	Current Units	No. bets	No. Wins	No. Losers	Start Date	System
Bundesliga 2	522.00	104.40	15	11	4	16/05/2020	Lay Away
Bundesliga 2	500.25	100.05	8	2	6	31/05/2020	Back Draw

Starting Bank for each system was £500 which equates to 100 units. 1 unit = £5.


Results

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	Return	System
13/06/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Heidenheim	Regensburg	3.8	-5	Back Draw
13/06/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Holstein Kiel	Wehen	3.85	-5	Back Draw
13/06/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Nurnberg	Greuther Furth	3.7	-5	Back Draw
14/06/2020	12:30	Bundesliga 2	St Pauli	Erzgebirge Aue	3.57	-5	Back Draw
14/06/2020	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Darmstadt	Hannover	2.75	5	Lay Away

Stakes are 1 unit

A mixed bag of results this weekend, the Back the Draw selections all lost (-4 Units) while the Lay Away won (+1 unit).  I have starting to look at other leagues, which have recently started.

Tomorrow sees another Dynamo catchup game where it is top (Arminia Bielefeld) versus bottom (Dynamo Dresden).  It is going to be interesting to see whether they can escape relegation. Karlsruher who are fourth bottom are only 5 points away, won today.

Results and Bet to Place 9th June

Current Position

League	Current Bank	Current Units	No. bets	No. Wins	No. Losers	Start Date	System
Bundesliga 2	512.00	102.40	13	9	4	16/05/2020	Lay Away
Bundesliga 2	520.25	104.05	4	2	2	31/05/2020	Back Draw

Starting Bank for each system was £500 which equates to 100 units. 1 unit = £5.

Recent Results

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	Return	System
08/06/2020	19:30	Bundesliga 2	Hamburg	Holstein Kiel	4.5	17.5	Back Draw

Note I am currently paying 0% commission with Smarkets and all stakes are 1 unit.

Holstein Kiel equalised in the 94th minute to make it 3-3, a result which provided over 3 units in itself. So far in the Back The Draw Strategy in Bundesliga 2, I have placed 4 bets, 2 winners and 2 losers and I am currently up just over 4 units.

Bets to Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	Return	System
09/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Dresden	Greuther Furth	2.52		Lay Away

Stakes are 1 unit

Only 1 game tonight Dynamo Dresden who are still playing catch up with their fixtures due to their extended downtime caused by players testing positive for Covid 19. Dresden won at the weekend and Greuther Furth have not won in their last 5 games.

Potential Profitable Betting Systems - German Bundesliga 2.

Potential Profitable Betting Systems - German Bundesliga 2.

I have taken advantage of the Covid lock down period to have a look at historical Football results data for a number of leagues and I have noticed some potential profitable betting systems. Note this is not a get rich quick scheme, it will be a slow grind to make a profit and some systems will be in negative territory before they show a profit.

As the German leagues have returned first I have started to put two of these systems into practice using 1 unit stakes.

For each system I have a bank of 100 units.  I am using £5 as 1 Unit and my starting bank for each system is £500. I will continue to bet 1 unit stakes of £5 until either my bank is gone or the systems has proved sufficiently profitable to increase my bank by 50% plus.

I recognise I am not going to get rich use £5 stakes however at the time of writing football is being played behind closed doors, these are strange times so I recommend exercising caution.

I have two systems on the German Bundesliga 2. However before I go into bets placed.  I want to briefly highlight how I found these systems. There will be further blog posts which provide more detail and analysis.

Looking at the last 4 years of data for the league. Backing every game and every possible result in the Match result Market (Home win, Draw, Away win) and consequently laying each result (Home win, Draw , Away Win) with a betting exchange and assuming 2% commission has returned the following unit returns.

Has returned the following unit returns

League	Back Home Win	Back Draw	Back Away Win	Lay Home Win	Lay Draw	Lay Away Win
Bundesliga 2	4.27	91.36	-56.71	-17.83	-107.86	39.73

** Data prior to the fixtures 06/06/2020

There are two outcomes which stand out as profitable.
1) Backing the draw in every game played in the last 4 years has returned 91.36 units
2) Laying away in every game played in the last 4 years has returned 39.73 units.

Unsurprisingly my system bets for this league focus on Backing the draw or Laying away.

Note when you Lay a bet on a Betting Exchange you are taking the position a normal Bookmaker would take. The most you can make is your stake minus commission, but you are liable if the bet wins.  I'm sure I will explain this better in a later blog post.

Current Position

League	Current Bank	Current Units	No. bets	No. Wins	No. Losers	Start Date	System
Bundesliga 2	512.00	102.40	13	9	4	16/05/2020	Lay Away
Bundesliga 2	502.75	100.55	4	1	2	31/05/2020	Back Draw

Note at the time of writing there is still one Draw Back game to be played.

Bundesliga 2 Lay Away System

I am not placing a bet on every fixture, I am filtering on certain price points which should hopefully prove more consistently profitable.

I started placing bets on the 16th May 2020 with 1 unit stakes.

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	Return
16/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Bochum	Heidenheim	2.72	5
16/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Erzgebirge Aue	Sandhausen	2.96	5
16/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Karlsruhe	Darmstadt	2.8	5
16/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Regensburg	Holstein Kiel	2.64	5
23/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Osnabruck	Hannover	2.6	-8
26/05/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Regensburg	Nurnberg	2.52	5
26/05/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Wehen	Sandhausen	2.6	-8
27/05/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Bochum	Holstein Kiel	2.56	5
30/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Holstein Kiel	Bielefeld	2.46	-7.3
30/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Karlsruhe	St Pauli	2.92	5
30/05/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Sandhausen	Hannover	2.72	5
05/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Greuther Furth	Sandhausen	2.92	-9.7
06/06/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Regensburg	Darmstadt	2.72	5

Note I am currently paying 0% commission on bets placed with Smarkets

Bundesliga 2 Back Draw System

I am not placing a bet on every fixture, I am filtering on certain price points which should hopefully prove more consistently profitable.

I started placing bets on the 31st May 2020, if I had started at the same time as the Lay Away System I would be showing a higher level of profit.

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Odds	Return
31/05/2020	12:30	Bundesliga 2	Heidenheim	Erzgebirge Aue	3.62	-5
03/06/2020	17:30	Bundesliga 2	Hannover	Dresden	4.1	-5
06/06/2020	12:00	Bundesliga 2	Bielefeld	Nurnberg	3.55	12.75

Note I am currently paying 0% commission on bets placed with Smarkets

Bets To Place

Date	Time	League	Home	Away	Back Odds	Back Stake	Return
08/06/2020	19:30	Bundesliga 2	Hamburg	Holstein Kiel	4.5	5