Potential
Profitable Betting Systems - German Bundesliga 2.
I have taken advantage of the Covid lock down period to have a look at historical Football results data for a number of leagues and I have noticed some potential profitable betting systems. Note this is not a get rich quick scheme, it will be a slow grind to make a profit and some systems will be in negative territory before they show a profit.
As the German leagues have returned first I have started to put two of these systems into practice using 1 unit stakes.
For each system I have a bank of 100 units. I am using £5 as 1 Unit and my starting bank for each system is £500. I will continue to bet 1 unit stakes of £5 until either my bank is gone or the systems has proved sufficiently profitable to increase my bank by 50% plus.
I recognise I am not going to get rich use £5 stakes however at the time of writing football is being played behind closed doors, these are strange times so I recommend exercising caution.
I have two systems on the German Bundesliga 2. However before I go into bets placed. I want to briefly highlight how I found these systems. There will be further blog posts which provide more detail and analysis.
Looking at the last 4 years of data for the league. Backing every game and every possible result in the Match result Market (Home win, Draw, Away win) and consequently laying each result (Home win, Draw , Away Win) with a betting exchange and assuming 2% commission has returned the following unit returns.
Has returned the following unit returns
| League |
Back Home Win |
Back Draw |
Back Away Win |
Lay Home Win |
Lay Draw |
Lay Away Win |
| Bundesliga 2 |
4.27 |
91.36 |
-56.71 |
-17.83 |
-107.86 |
39.73 |
** Data prior to the fixtures 06/06/2020
There are two outcomes which stand out as profitable.
1) Backing the draw in every game played in the last 4 years has returned 91.36 units
2) Laying away in every game played in the last 4 years has returned 39.73 units.
Unsurprisingly my system bets for this league focus on Backing the draw or Laying away.
Note when you Lay a bet on a Betting Exchange you are taking the position a normal Bookmaker would take. The most you can make is your stake minus commission, but you are liable if the bet wins. I'm sure I will explain this better in a later blog post.
Current Position
| League |
Current Bank |
Current Units |
No. bets |
No. Wins |
No. Losers |
Start Date |
System |
| Bundesliga 2 |
512.00 |
102.40 |
13 |
9 |
4 |
16/05/2020 |
Lay Away |
| Bundesliga 2 |
502.75 |
100.55 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
31/05/2020 |
Back Draw |
Note at the time of writing there is still one Draw Back game to be played.
Bundesliga 2 Lay Away System
I am not placing a bet on every fixture, I am filtering on certain price points which should hopefully prove more consistently profitable.
I started placing bets on the 16th May 2020 with 1 unit stakes.
| Date |
Time |
League |
Home |
Away |
Odds |
Return |
| 16/05/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Bochum |
Heidenheim |
2.72 |
5 |
| 16/05/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Erzgebirge Aue |
Sandhausen |
2.96 |
5 |
| 16/05/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Karlsruhe |
Darmstadt |
2.8 |
5 |
| 16/05/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Regensburg |
Holstein Kiel |
2.64 |
5 |
| 23/05/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Osnabruck |
Hannover |
2.6 |
-8 |
| 26/05/2020 |
17:30 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Regensburg |
Nurnberg |
2.52 |
5 |
| 26/05/2020 |
17:30 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Wehen |
Sandhausen |
2.6 |
-8 |
| 27/05/2020 |
17:30 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Bochum |
Holstein Kiel |
2.56 |
5 |
| 30/05/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Holstein Kiel |
Bielefeld |
2.46 |
-7.3 |
| 30/05/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Karlsruhe |
St Pauli |
2.92 |
5 |
| 30/05/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Sandhausen |
Hannover |
2.72 |
5 |
| 05/06/2020 |
17:30 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Greuther Furth |
Sandhausen |
2.92 |
-9.7 |
| 06/06/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Regensburg |
Darmstadt |
2.72 |
5 |
Note I am currently paying 0% commission on bets placed with Smarkets
Bundesliga 2 Back Draw System
I am not placing a bet on every fixture, I am filtering on certain price points which should hopefully prove more consistently profitable.
I started placing bets on the 31st May 2020, if I had started at the same time as the Lay Away System I would be showing a higher level of profit.
| Date |
Time |
League |
Home |
Away |
Odds |
Return |
| 31/05/2020 |
12:30 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Heidenheim |
Erzgebirge Aue |
3.62 |
-5 |
| 03/06/2020 |
17:30 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Hannover |
Dresden |
4.1 |
-5 |
| 06/06/2020 |
12:00 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Bielefeld |
Nurnberg |
3.55 |
12.75 |
Note I am currently paying 0% commission on bets placed with Smarkets
Bets To Place
| Date |
Time |
League |
Home |
Away |
Back Odds |
Back Stake |
Return |
| 08/06/2020 |
19:30 |
Bundesliga 2 |
Hamburg |
Holstein Kiel |
4.5 |
5 |
|
