Thursday 11 June 2020

This Weekends Bundesliga 2 Fixtures to bet on


Bets to Place


Date Time League Home Away Odds System
13/06/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Heidenheim Regensburg 3.8 Back Draw
13/06/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Holstein Kiel Wehen 3.85 Back Draw
13/06/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Nurnberg Greuther Furth 3.7 Back Draw
14/06/2020 12:30 Bundesliga 2 St Pauli Erzgebirge Aue 3.57 Back Draw
14/06/2020 12:30 Bundesliga 2 Darmstadt Hannover 2.75 Lay Away
Stakes are 1 unit

The fixtures are coming thick and fast. There are a number of system bet qualifying fixtures from the Bundesliga 2 over this weekend. There are four Back The Draws and One Lay Away. The odds listed above are listed as a guide, if you can back at a higher price or lay at a lower price then great. When I publish the results table I will update with the odds that I managed to get Matched at.

There are a number of other leagues starting to come back, a few of which I will be monitoring.
Again caution is advised as certain leagues seem to be affected more than others by playing behind closed doors with no crowd.

Wednesday 10 June 2020

One Result 10th June

Current Position

League Current Bank Current Units No. bets No. Wins No. Losers Start Date System
Bundesliga 2 517.00 103.40 14 10 4 16/05/2020 Lay Away
Bundesliga 2 520.25 104.05 4 2 2 31/05/2020 Back Draw
Starting Bank for each system was £500 which equates to 100 units. 1 unit = £5.

Recent Results

Date Time League Home Away Odds Return System
09/06/20 19:30 Bundesliga 2 Dynamo Dresen Greuther Furth 2.5 5 Lay Away
Note I am currently paying 0% commission with Smarkets and all stakes are 1 unit.

I managed to lay at 2.5 and Dresden got their equaliser in the second half.

Bets to Place

Date Time League Home Away Odds Return System
Stakes are 1 unit

No Bets today however I am starting to look at other leagues, Portugal being one of them, caution is advised though.

Tuesday 9 June 2020

Results and Bet to Place 9th June

Current Position

League Current Bank Current Units No. bets No. Wins No. Losers Start Date System
Bundesliga 2 512.00 102.40 13 9 4 16/05/2020 Lay Away
Bundesliga 2 520.25 104.05 4 2 2 31/05/2020 Back Draw
Starting Bank for each system was £500 which equates to 100 units. 1 unit = £5.

Recent Results

Date Time League Home Away Odds Return System
08/06/2020 19:30 Bundesliga 2 Hamburg Holstein Kiel 4.5 17.5 Back Draw
Note I am currently paying 0% commission with Smarkets and all stakes are 1 unit.

Holstein Kiel equalised in the 94th minute to make it 3-3, a result which provided over 3 units in itself. So far in the Back The Draw Strategy in Bundesliga 2, I have placed 4 bets, 2 winners and 2 losers and I am currently up just over 4 units.

Bets to Place

Date Time League Home Away Odds Return System
09/06/2020 17:30 Bundesliga 2 Dresden Greuther Furth 2.52 Lay Away
Stakes are 1 unit

Only 1 game tonight Dynamo Dresden who are still playing catch up with their fixtures due to their extended downtime caused by players testing positive for Covid 19. Dresden won at the weekend and Greuther Furth have not won in their last 5 games.

Potential Profitable Betting Systems - German Bundesliga 2.

Potential Profitable Betting Systems - German Bundesliga 2.


I have taken advantage of the Covid lock down period to have a look at historical Football results data for a number of leagues and I have noticed some potential profitable betting systems. Note this is not a get rich quick scheme, it will be a slow grind to make a profit and some systems will be in negative territory before they show a profit.

As the German leagues have returned first I have started to put two of these systems into practice using 1 unit stakes.

For each system I have a bank of 100 units.  I am using £5 as 1 Unit and my starting bank for each system is £500. I will continue to bet 1 unit stakes of £5 until either my bank is gone or the systems has proved sufficiently profitable to increase my bank by 50% plus.

I recognise I am not going to get rich use £5 stakes however at the time of writing football is being played behind closed doors, these are strange times so I recommend exercising caution.

I have two systems on the German Bundesliga 2. However before I go into bets placed.  I want to briefly highlight how I found these systems. There will be further blog posts which provide more detail and analysis.

Looking at the last 4 years of data for the league. Backing every game and every possible result in the Match result Market (Home win, Draw, Away win) and consequently laying each result (Home win, Draw , Away Win) with a betting exchange and assuming 2% commission has returned the following unit returns.

Has returned the following unit returns

League Back Home Win Back Draw Back Away Win Lay Home Win Lay Draw Lay Away Win
Bundesliga 2 4.27 91.36 -56.71 -17.83 -107.86 39.73

** Data prior to the fixtures 06/06/2020

There are two outcomes which stand out as profitable.
1) Backing the draw in every game played in the last 4 years has returned 91.36 units
2) Laying away in every game played in the last 4 years has returned 39.73 units.

Unsurprisingly my system bets for this league focus on Backing the draw or Laying away.

Note when you Lay a bet on a Betting Exchange you are taking the position a normal Bookmaker would take. The most you can make is your stake minus commission, but you are liable if the bet wins.  I'm sure I will explain this better in a later blog post.

Current Position
League Current Bank Current Units No. bets No. Wins No. Losers Start Date System
Bundesliga 2 512.00 102.40 13 9 4 16/05/2020 Lay Away
Bundesliga 2 502.75 100.55 4 1 2 31/05/2020 Back Draw
Note at the time of writing there is still one Draw Back game to be played.


Bundesliga 2 Lay Away System


I am not placing a bet on every fixture, I am filtering on certain price points which should hopefully prove more consistently profitable.

I started placing bets on the 16th May 2020 with 1 unit stakes.

Date Time League Home Away Odds Return
16/05/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Bochum Heidenheim 2.72 5
16/05/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Erzgebirge Aue Sandhausen 2.96 5
16/05/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Karlsruhe Darmstadt 2.8 5
16/05/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Regensburg Holstein Kiel 2.64 5
23/05/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Osnabruck Hannover 2.6 -8
26/05/2020 17:30 Bundesliga 2 Regensburg Nurnberg 2.52 5
26/05/2020 17:30 Bundesliga 2 Wehen Sandhausen 2.6 -8
27/05/2020 17:30 Bundesliga 2 Bochum Holstein Kiel 2.56 5
30/05/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Holstein Kiel Bielefeld 2.46 -7.3
30/05/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Karlsruhe St Pauli 2.92 5
30/05/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Sandhausen Hannover 2.72 5
05/06/2020 17:30 Bundesliga 2 Greuther Furth Sandhausen 2.92 -9.7
06/06/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Regensburg Darmstadt 2.72 5
Note I am currently paying 0% commission on bets placed with Smarkets

Bundesliga 2 Back Draw System


I am not placing a bet on every fixture, I am filtering on certain price points which should hopefully prove more consistently profitable.

I started placing bets on the 31st May 2020, if I had started at the same time as the Lay Away System I would be showing a higher level of profit.


Date Time League Home Away Odds Return
31/05/2020 12:30 Bundesliga 2 Heidenheim Erzgebirge Aue 3.62 -5
03/06/2020 17:30 Bundesliga 2 Hannover Dresden 4.1 -5
06/06/2020 12:00 Bundesliga 2 Bielefeld Nurnberg 3.55 12.75
Note I am currently paying 0% commission on bets placed with Smarkets


Bets To Place


Date Time League Home Away Back Odds Back Stake Return
08/06/2020 19:30 Bundesliga 2 Hamburg Holstein Kiel 4.5 5